Holiday liquidty

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Holiday Liquidity

Over the next week, the markets may behave strangely. The biggest issue is that many traders will start to close positions for the year, as money managers will be looking to take profits for reporting purposes. The clients want to know they have made money, and this is the time to report that to them if you want to keep a client base. The biggest issue retail traders face is understanding that for most of the big traders out there, this is a job. Its not as exciting as it is for you, it is literally their 9-5 gig. Think about how you feel during the holidays about your job. Most likely it isn't that exciting, and there a multitude of other places you'd rather be.

The thin trading volume can cause issues, and make movement a bit exaggerated at times. The order flow just isn't there, so in the event that a larger player places an order in the FX markets, the market will have to move farther to fill that order. (Corporations won't be afraid this time of year, they most likely are being forced to exchange currency due to some deal. Also, remember that those fund managers closing out their positions will cause the occasional large position.) In this scenario, I have seen a lot of strange movement in the market, both bullish and bearish.

One year, I thought I would be smart and try to leverage a larger than recommended position in the EUR/USD pair during Christmas week. The market had been moving in one direction most of the month, so I figured it made sense to follow it. However, there was a large order placed - you guessed it - against me. This took the market down significantly, only to eventually bounce just as significantly. However, it took out my account before the round trip. And that was a lesson I will never forget. Chris

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