New Zealand dollar stretched against Canadian dollar

British pound faces uphill battle against Japanese yen
December 12, 2018
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In the battle of commodity currencies, the New Zealand dollar has rallied quite significantly against Canadian dollar. However, if you do not look at the longer-term picture you may miss what’s actually happening. It appears that we are approaching a significant resistance barrier in the form of the downtrend line at the top of a massive channel. It is because of this, and also the weekly chart that I see potential for a selling opportunity.
Oil, China, and maybe even global growth.
At this point, although they are both commodity currencies you should keep in mind what they track. As a general rule, the Canadian dollar will attract crude oil and that of course has been getting beaten up as of late. In that sense it is no surprise that the Canadian dollar is soft. However, the New Zealand dollar tends to follow the Chinese and/or Asian situation. With the Sino-American relations on thin ice, it makes sense that perhaps the New Zealand dollar will start to feel some weight upon it.
I suspect at this point the crude oil is trying to bottom out, as it did rally something like 7% yesterday, and that it is only a matter of time before OPEC does something drastic. At the same time, the situation between the Americans and the Chinese has not changed much and as a result it would not surprise me to see the antipode currencies such as the kiwi get hammered. We had formed a couple of shooting stars on the weekly chart, so now I think that if we can clear the 0.9075 level, it’s likely that we will start to work our way towards the bottom of the channel, especially if the situation between the Americans and the Chinese deteriorates.

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