Unfortunately, far too many traders are facing a bigger problem than those of us that started over a decade ago are. It is not a situation where the markets have become much more complex that is causing the problem, although one can certainly argue that they are more complex, the reality is that there is one major problem facing many of you that I did not have to deal with almost 15 years ago: and that is noise.
All things being equal, during any trading session you will see hundreds of conflicting opinions on places like Twitter, Forex Factory, FX Daily, and so on. The biggest problem is that so many of the people out there willing to put their opinion forward are not profitable traders. When you go to a place like Forex Factory, it is essentially the “blind leading the blind”, as anybody who wishes to express their opinion can. While I do not think this is necessarily a bad thing, I cannot tell you how many times I have read a story about somebody following somebody else, and blown up their account instead of putting the work in.
The biggest thing that you need to keep in mind is that when you are trading, you are trading probabilities and not certainties. That is one of the hardest parts of trading, recognizing that no matter what you do and no matter how big the set up seems to be, some random event can come in and wipe out your position. Once you embrace the uncertainty, you have made a huge step forward.
Unfortunately, there are so many opinions out there that are not only given out by amateurs, but worse yet by professionals that are more interested in clicks and headlines than actually helping out traders. The reality is that the way that financial news gets paid goes directly counter to what you need. The more confused you are, the more reliant you are upon these websites. You turn right back around and add to the click count, and they can show their advertisers that they are getting traffic.
So what is the solution you ask? It is simple, simply trade would you see on the charts and ignore all the other bullshit. Yes, macro can help, but that is just more or less for directionality. If for whatever reason the US dollar is strengthening, and perhaps there is a “risk off” attitude out there for some time, then you should be buying the US dollar. It does not matter what theory you subscribe to, whether it be that the US dollar is going to evaporate or if it is going to remain the world’s reserve currency. At that point in time, the USD is strengthening and it is your job to make money based upon that move, not upon what you think “should be.” Unfortunately, most of the time when you think that something “should be”, it is somebody else’s opinion that you have agreed to. It has nothing to do with your own research.
Remember, trade which you see, not what you think.