In this post, I am not naming names. After all, I enjoy all of the messages I get – for the most part – from people that are trading around the world. The message was one that I have seen far too many times in the past, and it is based on technical analysis. In this case, it is the AUD/USD pair, but the market itself isn’t important. It is a common set up that I see from time to time, and every time it occurs – and fails – I get messages.
Looking at the chart above, its plain to see that the Australian dollar has seen a lot of support in the 0.67 area. Going back several years, we have seen the buyers come into the picture and get long. The message I just got was something like: “I am VERY LONG AUD/USD, and wondered how much stronger you think the USD can get?” This is the wrong way to think about it. I suspect that there are several reasons why this kind of thing happens, and they are fairly common.
To begin with, the person was from Australia. The “home bias” is a real thing in the currency markets by retail traders, and it does make a certain amount of sense. After all, I am sure that he walks the streets of Melbourne, Sydney, or Darwin, and understands that the world isn’t falling apart around him. So when he sees that – it makes the rate “look cheap.” However, he wasn’t asking the correct question.
Why in the hell would the USD fall?
Me
The biggest trap that a lot of traders out there fall into is that there is some kind of magic on the charts. Yes, they can be important for entries and exits, but there aren’t people out there moving markets based upon some hammer. If it were that easy, there wouldn’t be losses. After all, do you really think that you have learned some magic secret based on a candlestick? Anyone with eyes could see that the 0.67 level matter for some time. You are not going to beat the market thinking like this.
You must understand that there are reasons for a currency movement. Billions aren’t traded by people looking at a pattern and pressing buttons. The big fish look at the markets from a cycle perspective, and are certainly smart enough to see the same things you do. In this current environment, there are a lot of reasons for the USD being strong. Here are just a few off the top of my head:
- Bond yields in America continue to rise rapidly
- China – Australia’s biggest customer, is in trouble
- There is the ‘fear trade’, as the world is going into recession
- There is a huge shortage of dollars. (Almost all debts internationally are in USD. As rates rise, there is a huge rush into the dollar before the debts become too heavy.)
- The US economy is performing better than most others – at least for now
- The Federal Reserve is going to kill inflation with tight monetary policy, no matter what
- The EU has more difficulties than most people realize
- The UK has almost as many difficulties as the EU
This list could go on for ages. The reality is that until the Federal Reserve changes it monetary policy, the USD is a wrecking ball that is going to overrun almost everything else out there. Do not get me wrong, there are a few trades that I think will make careers once things turn around, but we aren’t there yet.
I don’t think the title of your article matches the content lol. Just kidding, mainly because I had some doubts after reading the article.
Thank you for your sharing. I am worried that I lack creative ideas. It is your article that makes me full of hope. Thank you. But, I have a question, can you help me?
Thanks for sharing. I read many of your blog posts, cool, your blog is very good.
Thank you for your sharing. I am worried that I lack creative ideas. It is your article that makes me full of hope. Thank you. But, I have a question, can you help me?
Your article helped me a lot, is there any more related content? Thanks!
Thank you for your sharing. I am worried that I lack creative ideas. It is your article that makes me full of hope. Thank you. But, I have a question, can you help me?
I don’t think the title of your article matches the content lol. Just kidding, mainly because I had some doubts after reading the article.
Your point of view caught my eye and was very interesting. Thanks. I have a question for you.
Thanks for sharing. I read many of your blog posts, cool, your blog is very good.
Thank you for your sharing. I am worried that I lack creative ideas. It is your article that makes me full of hope. Thank you. But, I have a question, can you help me? https://www.binance.com/it/join?ref=S5H7X3LP
Thank you for your sharing. I am worried that I lack creative ideas. It is your article that makes me full of hope. Thank you. But, I have a question, can you help me?
Thanks for sharing. I read many of your blog posts, cool, your blog is very good.
Your point of view caught my eye and was very interesting. Thanks. I have a question for you.
Thank you for your sharing. I am worried that I lack creative ideas. It is your article that makes me full of hope. Thank you. But, I have a question, can you help me?
I don’t think the title of your article matches the content lol. Just kidding, mainly because I had some doubts after reading the article.
Thanks for sharing. I read many of your blog posts, cool, your blog is very good. https://accounts.binance.com/pt-PT/register-person?ref=KDN7HDOR
Thank you for your sharing. I am worried that I lack creative ideas. It is your article that makes me full of hope. Thank you. But, I have a question, can you help me? https://www.binance.com/join?ref=QCGZMHR6
Can you be more specific about the content of your article? After reading it, I still have some doubts. Hope you can help me.
Thank you for your sharing. I am worried that I lack creative ideas. It is your article that makes me full of hope. Thank you. But, I have a question, can you help me?
Can you be more specific about the content of your article? After reading it, I still have some doubts. Hope you can help me. https://www.binance.info/register?ref=QCGZMHR6
You could definitely see your skills within the work you write. The world hopes for even more passionate writers such as you who are not afraid to mention how they believe. At all times go after your heart.
Hmm is anyone else experiencing problems with the pictures on this blog loading? I’m trying to determine if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.
Hi there! I’m at work surfing around your blog from my new apple iphone! Just wanted to say I love reading your blog and look forward to all your posts! Keep up the great work!
I’m impressed by the quality of this content! The author has clearly put a huge amount of effort into investigating and organizing the information. It’s exciting to come across an article that not only gives helpful information but also keeps the readers captivated from start to finish. Hats off to him for making such a remarkable piece!
Your article helped me a lot, is there any more related content? Thanks!
Thanks for giving your ideas. I’d also like to convey that video games have been ever before evolving. Modern technology and inventions have helped create authentic and fun games. Most of these entertainment video games were not actually sensible when the real concept was first of all being tried. Just like other styles of electronics, video games too have had to progress by means of many many years. This is testimony for the fast continuing development of video games.
whoah this blog is magnificent i love reading your posts. Keep up the good work! You know, many people are hunting around for this info, you can aid them greatly.
Thanks for sharing. I read many of your blog posts, cool, your blog is very good.
One other thing I would like to talk about is that instead of trying to match all your online degree training on days and nights that you conclude work (as most people are exhausted when they come home), try to arrange most of your classes on the week-ends and only one or two courses in weekdays, even if it means a little time away from your weekend break. This is fantastic because on the week-ends, you will be more rested and concentrated with school work. Thanks alot : ) for the different ideas I have figured out from your blog.
Heya i am for the first time here. I found this board and I find It truly useful & it helped me out a lot. I hope to give something back and help others like you aided me.
Can you be more specific about the content of your article? After reading it, I still have some doubts. Hope you can help me.
What an informative and meticulously-researched article! The author’s attention to detail and aptitude to present complicated ideas in a comprehensible manner is truly admirable. I’m thoroughly captivated by the scope of knowledge showcased in this piece. Thank you, author, for sharing your expertise with us. This article has been a true revelation!
Hi there are using WordPress for your site platform? I’m new to the blog world but I’m trying to get started and set up my own. Do you require any html coding knowledge to make your own blog? Any help would be greatly appreciated!
Your article helped me a lot, is there any more related content? Thanks! https://www.binance.com/de-CH/register?ref=W0BCQMF1
As I web-site possessor I believe the content material here is rattling magnificent , appreciate it for your efforts. You should keep it up forever! Best of luck.
This article is a refreshing change! The author’s unique perspective and thoughtful analysis have made this a truly fascinating read. I’m appreciative for the effort she has put into crafting such an educational and mind-stimulating piece. Thank you, author, for sharing your wisdom and stimulating meaningful discussions through your brilliant writing!
I’m not that much of a internet reader to be honest but your sites really nice, keep it up! I’ll go ahead and bookmark your site to come back later. Cheers
Do you have a spam issue on this website; I also am a blogger, and I was curious about your situation; many of us have created some nice methods and we are looking to swap methods with other folks, why not shoot me an e-mail if interested.
My brother suggested I would possibly like this blog. He was once totally right. This post truly made my day. You cann’t imagine just how much time I had spent for this info! Thanks!
My partner and I stumbled over here coming from a different web address and thought I might as well check things out. I like what I see so now i’m following you. Look forward to looking at your web page again.
I have discovered some new things from your site about personal computers. Another thing I have always considered is that computers have become something that each house must have for several reasons. They offer convenient ways to organize homes, pay bills, shop, study, listen to music and perhaps watch tv programs. An innovative strategy to complete all of these tasks has been a notebook. These desktops are mobile ones, small, robust and easily transportable.
affordablecanvaspaintings.com.au is Australia Popular Online 100 percent Handmade Art Store. We deliver Budget Handmade Canvas Paintings, Abstract Art, Oil Paintings, Artwork Sale, Acrylic Wall Art Paintings, Custom Art, Oil Portraits, Pet Paintings, Building Paintings etc. 1000+ Designs To Choose From, Highly Experienced Artists team, Up-to 50 percent OFF SALE and FREE Delivery Australia, Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and all regional areas. We ship worldwide international locations. Order Online Your Handmade Art Today.
Very nice post. I just stumbled upon your weblog and wanted to say that I’ve really enjoyed browsing your blog posts. In any case I will be subscribing to your feed and I hope you write again very soon!
Thanks for every other informative web site. The place else may I am getting that kind of information written in such an ideal means? I’ve a challenge that I’m just now running on, and I’ve been on the glance out for such information.
This web page is really a stroll-by for all the information you wished about this and didn?t know who to ask. Glimpse here, and also you?ll undoubtedly uncover it.
Thanks for this excellent article. One more thing to mention is that nearly all digital cameras come equipped with some sort of zoom lens so that more or less of the scene to become included simply by ‘zooming’ in and out. All these changes in {focus|focusing|concentration|target|the a**** length tend to be reflected from the viewfinder and on massive display screen right on the back of this camera.
Thanks for your blog post. Some tips i would like to add is that personal computer memory needs to be purchased if the computer still can’t cope with everything you do along with it. One can deploy two RAM memory boards of 1GB each, as an example, but not one of 1GB and one of 2GB. One should check the car maker’s documentation for own PC to be sure what type of ram is essential.
Hey this is somewhat of off topic but I was wondering if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding expertise so I wanted to get guidance from someone with experience. Any help would be enormously appreciated!
I was just seeking this info for a while. After six hours of continuous Googleing, at last I got it in your site. I wonder what is the lack of Google strategy that do not rank this type of informative web sites in top of the list. Generally the top sites are full of garbage.
We are a group of volunteers and starting a new scheme in our community. Your site provided us with valuable information to work on. You have done an impressive job and our whole community will be grateful to you.