The Canadian dollar, also known as the CAD, has a strong correlation with crude oil markets. This connection can be attributed to the significant role crude oil plays in Canada’s foreign exchange earnings. A substantial part of the country’s economy relies on the oil industry, with oil exports accounting for a large portion of Canada’s revenue. Therefore, fluctuations in oil prices can significantly impact the Canadian dollar’s value in relation to other currencies, particularly the US dollar (USD).
Over the past 40 years, the value of the CAD against the USD has experienced considerable fluctuations, sometimes rising by nearly 10% or dropping by as much as 37%[3]. This volatility can be attributed, in part, to the changing dynamics in the oil markets. When oil prices rise, the demand for the Canadian dollar generally increases as a result of higher revenues from oil exports. Consequently, the CAD appreciates against other currencies. Conversely, when oil prices fall, the Canadian dollar’s value tends to decline due to reduced foreign exchange earnings from oil exports.
However, it is essential to note that the correlation between the CAD and oil prices is not always consistent. For instance, as of March 2022, the 3-month rolling correlation between the Canadian dollar and oil prices had decreased to 0.3 from 0.9 in December. This change suggests that the relationship between the two variables can weaken over time, potentially due to other factors influencing the value of the Canadian dollar, such as domestic economic performance, monetary policy, and global economic conditions.
In conclusion, the Canadian dollar and crude oil markets share a strong correlation, primarily due to the critical role that oil exports play in Canada’s foreign exchange earnings. However, it is important to recognize that the relationship between the two variables can change over time, and other factors can also influence the Canadian dollar’s value. As such, while oil prices remain a significant determinant of the CAD’s strength or weakness, they are not the sole factor affecting its performance in foreign exchange markets.
