It is worth noting that over the last several months, we have seen Bitcoin and the rest of crypto rally at the very end of each month. I suspect that this has more to do with “marking up at the end of the month”, then anything else. This is because these funds have to pretend like they are fully invested, and now that there has been a pattern established, some traders are trying to “front run” this action.
However, when you look at the chart, you can see the Bitcoin has nowhere to go at this point, as we are simply going sideways. When you do look at the consolidation, the most obvious thing that should stand out is that the $18,000 level continues to be a hard floor in the market. The question now is whether or not that will get violated? I suspect it does given enough time because there is an extraordinarily tough macroeconomic environment for risk appetite to face. Without risk appetite, crypto and other volatile assets have no real chance of a sustainable gain.
Besides the Bitcoin chart, it is probably prudent to pay attention to the 10 year yield in America. It is still above 4%, and although it’s not necessarily shooting straight up in the air, it does have a sustainable bullish pressure to it, and it certainly looks as if we are nowhere near capitulating. As long as people are going to be able to earn interest on a bond, and feel the need to do so, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency goes higher.
Bitcoin is the bellwether. Once Bitcoin can get a sustainable rally, then you can start to have the argument about spreading out in the crypto world. However, this recent rally looks like just another game of accounting tricks, and that we are much likelier to see the $18,000 level again before any type of breakout. In fact, I need to see $25,000 taken out to the upside to be convinced that Bitcoin has endured a new bull market.
